NEWSPAPERS - AN OPPOSING WORLD VIEW

The World Newspaper Congress begins its sessions today in Hyderabad, India and will touch upon a number of pressing issues from journalistic freedom to the impact of the web on newspaper fortunes.

That newspapers are facing a disappearing act has been long argued in the face of declining circulation. The following presentation from the Congress provides alternative views....

At no time in the foreseeable future will digital advertising revenues replace those lost to print, making the search for new business models including paid-for online access for news ­ a pressing concern for the news publishing industry, the World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers said in its annual world press trends update.

As search engines take the largest slice of advertising revenues, little is left for the content generators themselves. In a 182-billion dollar press advertising industry, digital revenues of newspapers accounted for less than 6 billion dollars last year and are forecast by to grow to no more than 8.4 billion dollars by 2013.

At the same time, print advertising is expected to decline and that by 2013, combined print and digital ad revenues will be less than print only ad revenues were in 2008.

"These forecasts, similar to those made by Zenith and others,demonstrate quite simply that at no time soon will digital advertising revenues come close to achieving the sort of revenues required, by many, to compensate for falling print revenue," said Timothy Balding, co-CEO of WAN-IFRA. "So that answer will have to be found elsewhere. Should these forecasts come close to being true, new business models will have to be invented."

"If newspaper companies wish to maintain their strong content leadership, someone is going to have to pay. It looks like we have to solve the digital payment issue ­and soon," he said.

The annual world press trends survey was presented Tuesday at the World Newspaper Congress and World Editors Forum in Hyderabad, India, where the paid content issue is being hotly debated.

Yet despite the problems of falling advertising revenues, forecasts of even further declines, and pressure from new competitors, the global newspaper industry is far from facing an "apocalypse," Mr Balding said.

"Despite the endless predictions about the death of newspapers, they actually continue to grow, at least on a global scale," said Mr Balding.

The WAN-IFRA survey showed that newspaper circulation grew, on a global scale, by 1.3 percent in 2008, the last full year for which data exists, and almost 9 percent over five years.

"You might say that this growth is taking place in the developing markets and masks a continued downward trend in the developed world. And to a degree this is true, but it is not the whole story, as newspaper companies in the 'old' markets have embraced digital platforms and new forms of print publishing and, in doing so, have actually grown their audience reach and revenues, even while their print circulations have come under pressure."

The data shows consistent newspaper growth in Africa, Asia and South America, and a long-term slowdown in the US and European markets.

"But even here, a sense of proportion demands that we deny the idea that the apocalypse is upon us," said Mr Balding. "A circulation drop in Europe, for example, is less than 3 percent over five years. Over five years, according to our survey, newspaper circulation increased in 100 of the 182 nations for which we have reliable data."

TAKE THE LOCAL

The dynamics of local media consumption is undergoing a fundamental change driven, in part, by community need and passion.

The notion and shift of attention to local media by the consumer has not yet reached the marketing departments of national brands. Instead, they are focused on the need to reach a widely dispersed audience on more "efficient", targeted, national platforms. They have yet to catch up with middle America and run the risk of eroding channels of distribution for both ad messages and product if they continue to ignore local media.

It's all about the Internet! But is it?

That technology has driven us to embrace the Internet as the next single source channel for information, entertainment, organization, communication, shopping and more is to suggest, as many have, that all other channels are doomed. In reality, a backlash of sorts is echoing in Smalltown USA to keep the media and the local community intact. Local community newspapers, as an example, are thriving in the face of today's economy.

The Internet represents about twenty percent of ad spending.... yet we are likely focusing eighty percent of our intellectual capital there! Television, Print and "Analog" media still represent eighty percent of all ad investments. What's wrong with this picture?

Today, Katz Television Group announced the creation of a new marketing group to boost awareness of Local Television and Local Digital initiatives. Bravo!

Last week, IPG, recognizing the need for local focus by major marketers launched anew agency, Geomentum, supported by a staff of 500 with close to $2 billion in billings. Bravo!

YOU CAN'T PUT THE TOOTHPASTE BACK IN THE TUBE

For many, many years the newspaper industry got it right. They were making tons of money, much of it coming from a cash cow called classifieds. The Internet came along and with it a chance to post a classified ad at no charge .... free. It was the loss leader to attract the currency of the web ... traffic and eyeballs.

As the newspapers held ground for paid placements, the cash cow began to go dry.

Today, the drama is focusing on content. What exactly is content? And what exactly are readers willing to pay for?

When the New York Times decided to provide their content to web readers for free, they let the toothpaste out of the tube. What will it take to get the toothpaste back in?

My commentary in today's Media Life Magazine sets the stage for a discussion that has already begun to heat up in the press.

Your comments and thoughts are encouraged.