3D ... INVESTMENT GAMBLE FOLLY

Just over a year ago I commented on the folly of 3D as a viable business. That post can be read here.

Fast forward to today's Business Insider article "3D Movies Are A Bust".
The outcome was so very obvious but Hollywood and TV set manufacturers hopped on the bandwagon, spending billions to rush to market with the new technology. They stand to lose their investments.

The single biggest advantage for 3D remains in gaming on small mobile tablets and PCs, shifting away from Hollywood and 3D sets.

3D .... So-o-o yesterday.

THE 3D JACKPOT

The warning signals are out and they do not bode well for 3D TV or 3D film makers.

Having already invested billions, electronics manufacturers, production companies and Hollywood are bracing for a win or lose jackpot.

But what’s at the end of the rainbow may very likely turn out to be fools gold.

A report by the Financial Times yesterday pointed to a nervous set at Hollywood as many of the 3D releases simply flopped. The hype of Avatar, Alice in Wonderland and Clash of the Titans did not spill over to releases like Cats and Dogs which was panned by critics.

Overlooking the constraints of consumer spending in an economic downturn, 3D movie releases demand a 50% premium over 2D ticket prices. What are they thinking?

Short term vision has blurred reality as greed set in. 3D is a dimension looking for an audience that exists for the short term ….. until the novelty wears off.

And while Hollywood sits on the edge of their theater seat, companies the likes of LG, Sony and Samsung dove into the third dimension with huge investments in hardware.

Gizmodo reports that the sale of 3D TV units in Japan are not up to par. One year into marketing the units, prices are down by 20% and sales are not nearly predictive of a viable market. Yet the manufacturers are blindly predicting "millions of sets" will be sold in the coming year.

Say it often enough and you might come to believe it's true!

IDo believe in 3D, I DO believe in 3D, I DO believe in 3D ......

THEN AND NOW

As Avatar approaches $1.7 billion in worldwide box office sales, I cannot help but wonder how we keep reinventing our future.

Three dimensional movie imagery has been around since the late 1890s when a patent for a stereoscopic 3D movie process was filed by the British film pioneer, William Friese-Greene. It wasn't until 1922, however, until the first 3D film, the Power of Love, was shown to a paying audience.

Through the 20s and 30's the love affair with 3D died down, fueled in part by the Great Depression. It wasn't until 1952 when a short lived Golden Age of 3D released the first color stereoscopic feature, Bwana Devil. Owing to the complexity and economics of production,and the birth of Cinemascope, the decline of 3D began in 1953, just one year later.

Several revivals later, one in the 1970s and another post 1985 improved the technology but none brought it to life like Avatar. From the flimsy cardboard glasses to what was the focus of the Consumer Electronics Show this past month, 3D may be coming of age.

Or is it?

The new technology is impressive, but the experience is still a throwback to the 1950s when sitting in a movie house, wearing polarized, tinted cardboard glasses was a novelty. Step lightly into the 3D craze ... it may not last too long.

Fifty years ago, at a ticket price of just thirty-five cents for two features plus cartoons, how could you go wrong.