PREDICTING FLOPS - 3DTV



Several months ago we commented on the lemming effect of television manufacturers running over the 3DTV cliff. Not withstanding the expense, the need to wear glasses (and have extra pairs around for guests), and the cost of the glasses we predicted (and still do) the loss of hundreds of millions by companies the likes of Sony, Samsung and LG among others.

Major motion picture directors and movie critics panned 3D as a "waste of a dimension".

Today, a Japanese consumer survey may have hammered the first nail in the coffin.

Here are the results and a partial lift from website VG247 ....

Sony is preparing to stake its case for 3D gaming at Develop in Brighton this month, despite a Japanese survey today showing that nearly 70 percent of those questioned have no intention of upgrading to 3D TVs this year. Why? Because the glasses are turning them off.

Respondents blamed the need for wear glasses, costly TV sets and scarcity of general content for lack of interest, the survey by Kakaku.com showed (via Reuters).

The numbers aren’t small, either: 70 percent said the hassle of wearing special glasses put them off, 57 percent said prices were too high and close to 40 percent said there was not enough 3D content.

Of those questioned, 67.4 percent said they were not interested in buying a 3D TV while only 31.2 percent were considering or wanted to purchase one, the survey said.

The online survey ran June 10-16, receiving responses from 8,957 people.

Gaming firms such as Sony and EA pushed 3D titles in their E3 press conferences this year, with Sony in particular making big efforts to evangelise the fledgling feature.

Sony continues western 3D push

Unperturbed by the news from Japan, however, Sony said today it’s to showcase PS3 3D at Develop later this month.

Enough said.

3 comments:

gary said...

Unless manufacturers do a good job showcasing then it wont sell. I have seen many people in stores picking up glasses and they dont realize they need switched on. Unfortunately in this multi-tasking world 3D commands full attention which many consumers dont do now...i have just watched Brazil vs netherlands and sorted e-mail. Could not do that with 3D glasses on.

Joel Gilgoff said...

Is the glass half full or half empty. If 70% of Japanese said they were not interested in Sony 3D TV at this time - does that mean 30% are interested.

30% of 50 million households represents 15 million 3D Tv sales for this year.

Paul Benjou said...

Joel..
If we were to assign intent probabilities in the electronics category, these numbers would be far lower. Intent never translates fully to purchase.
The probability for success, especially considering the huge capital and marketing investment in a highly competitive market, if iffy at best.